“Two dimensions” Looking forward to agricultural development trends and prospects

“Two dimensions” Looking forward to agricultural development trends and prospects

According to the “2016-2020 China Modern Agriculture Investment Analysis and Prospect Forecast Report” issued by China Investment Consulting, with the proposal of “Synchronization of Sanhua”, it is foreseeable that the agricultural modernization process will be further accelerated. The following two trends from the economic development trend and the induced innovation theory look at the development trend of agricultural modernization.

(1) Economic development trend and prospects for agricultural modernization

1. Economic structure changes and agricultural modernization

Since the beginning of the new century, the effect of the state on economic restructuring has gradually become prominent, and the synergy of the three industries has increased. The proportion of industrial output decreased from 15.1% in 2000 to 10.1% in 2010, and the rate of decline slowed down; the proportion of the secondary industry remained basically stable; and the proportion of the tertiary industry increased rapidly. In 2003-2011, the second and third industries maintained a relatively fast development trend.

The acceleration of the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, the steady improvement of the overall quality of the industry, the continuous improvement of the level of urbanization and the increasing ability to absorb employment have created good opportunities and conditions for the development of agricultural modernization. However, from the perspective of urban and rural structure, the urban-rural dual structure coefficient in 2010 is still as high as 4.76, far higher than the world average. It can be seen that the urban-rural dual structure is still a difficult problem that must be solved in China's modernization. Therefore, only by putting agricultural modernization at the forefront, effectively guaranteeing the effective supply of major agricultural products and promoting farmers' incomes, can we break through the bottleneck of the development of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization, and realize the integration of urban and rural economic and social development. Claim.

2. Changes in consumption structure and prospects for agricultural modernization

The improvement of industrialization, urbanization and the improvement of consumption levels will inevitably lead people to improve their consumption structure and raise people's requirements for the quality of agricultural products. In recent years, consumers' attention to food safety has gradually increased. The focus of attention has been on food safety incidents in recent years, as well as in product innovation and quality improvement. At the same time, people's consumption structure has undergone great changes. The transformation of food consumption demand will inevitably lead to further transformation of the agricultural structure. This requires that agricultural production should meet market demand, the structure of agricultural varieties should be further optimized, agriculture should be developed in a high-yield, and direction, and agricultural production and operators should also be required to continuously improve the level of integration and informationization of agriculture. At the same time, the market is required to form a series of comprehensive agricultural product quality standards, inspection and testing and certification systems.

3. Labor mobility and agricultural modernization prospects

In 2011, China's agricultural output value fell to 10% and 0% of GDP, but agricultural employment still reached 34.8%, indicating that there is still a disconnect between China's employment structure. At the same time, with the further transfer of rural youth labor, rural labor will enter a structural shortage phase. This requires efforts to achieve "unified management to the development of farmers' joint and cooperation, the formation of a diversified, multi-level, multi-form business service system direction", the use of modern management service system to train new farmers, guide and promote the use of modern material conditions and science Technical equipment and transformation of agriculture.

(2) Induced innovation theory and agricultural modernization

Yujiro and Ratan (1985) developed the theory of induced innovation, using a large amount of historical data, production function models, and theoretical derivation to prove that technological progress and institutional innovation are caused by variables within the economic system, and emphasize that in any economy, agriculture Development depends on the interaction of resource endowments, cultural endowments, technology and institutions. They also pointed out that the failure of agricultural development in developing countries and the imbalance of world agriculture are due to adverse conditions hindering or delaying the process of technological progress and institutional innovation; these disadvantages include market distortions, cultural environment, research institutions and scientists' imperfections. Lack of waiting; these disadvantages are mainly caused by unreasonable systems and policies. Based on the theory of induced innovation, in order to realize agricultural modernization, we must pay attention to the large investment in education and research, continuously improve the cultural level of the rural labor force, and strengthen the ability of institutional innovation and reform.

As a large agricultural country, China's analysis and prospects for agricultural development are of great significance to the development of modern agriculture. It will help to adjust the production structure, determine agricultural production targets, and promote the sustainable development of agriculture.

(Original title: Future development prospects and trends of modern agriculture in China)