Do not advocate the "turning point" of the auto market on the production and sales of automobile 20 million next year

Recently, the seventh issue of the China Automotive Market Index released by the China Automotive Market Index Institute pointed out that according to China's macroeconomic and automotive market trends and the index model, the new car market in China will increase by around 10% in 2012 and will challenge 20 million vehicles.

The China Automotive Market Index Research Institute was jointly initiated by Shanghai Dongchang Automobile Group, together with relevant experts from Nanjing University and Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. It once accurately predicted the production and sales volume of the new car market in China in 2009 and 2010, and it has received attention and praise from all walks of life.

In response to the above predictions, a spokesperson for the China Automotive Market Index Institute and Professor Wang Guorong of the Dongchang Research Institute analyzed that the high consolidation of the domestic auto market this year should be seen as the bottom of the market after the “post-blowout” period has been established, and the market will return to 10% overall. About the normal growth rate. He said that the China Automotive Market Index Institute does not advocate the "turning point" theory of the auto market, because the Chinese economy is still on the track of rapid growth, building a well-to-do society, and cannot leave the "walking line" of clothing, food, housing and transportation. Enjoying the modern automobile civilization is the “just-needed” Chinese people who are pursuing a more affluent well-to-do life. According to the report, in 2011, the Chinese new car market was consolidating at a high level of 18 million, which was due to the stimulation policies of the purchase of small-displacement vehicle purchase tax, the support of the car to the countryside, and the trade-in replacement subsidies for the continuous launch of the global financial crisis in the past two years. Combine boxing, at least 10% increase for the auto market. The report also pointed out that the extraordinary increase of 30% and 40% of the creation of the stimulus policies in the previous two years was not sustainable, and that a year of adjustment is conducive to the growth rate.

With regard to the prediction that the domestic new car market will challenge 20 million new highs in 2012, the report analyzes that at the stage of automobile introduction, the growth rate of automobile production and sales should be 1 to 1.5 times GDP growth, taking into account the population base, per capita roads, and automobiles. Due to the slowdown in cultural and economic growth, the normal growth rate of the Chinese automobile market should be around 10%. Currently, the ratio of global vehicles to people is 7:1. The proportion of Chinese cars is only one-half of the world's average. The number of cars in the Chinese market is at least doubled, which is an increase of 100 million vehicles. If we say that the Chinese auto market will enter the "turning point", it will only happen when the new car market reaches 40 million in 2018.