"According to factors such as the slowdown in economic growth and the implementation of the National IV emission standards, the pessimism in the heavy-duty truck market is relatively serious in 2015. The heavy-card companies' forecasts for market demand this year are generally conservative."
Recently, the “Automobile-Tires Cross-border Development Summit Forum - Analysis of the Automotive Market Impact on the Tire Market in 2015†sponsored by the Automotive Industry Development Research Branch of the China Automotive Engineering Society and organized by the Tire World Network was held in Beijing. Experts from Shaanxi Automobile Group, China Gong Yunan, Chief Analyst of Truck Network, delivered a keynote speech at the forum, analyzed the sales of heavy trucks in 2014 and made predictions for the 2015 market.
　　
The heavy truck market may continue to shrink at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. The industry’s forecast for 2015 heavy truck market is generally conservative, and the entire heavy truck market is filled with pessimism.
It is understood that analysts and first-line sales personnel of domestic heavy truck companies forecast the demand for the heavy truck market this year, which is generally between 620,000 and 730,000 units, which is lower than the actual sales of 744,000 units last year.
Among them, China CNHTC Cai Dong, general manager of the view that this year's heavy truck industry sales are expected to be flat or decreased slightly in 2014; Zhou silver towards the general manager of Shaanxi heavy truck sales company view is that this year sales of 730,000; North-Benz believes this figure Should be about 700,000 vehicles; JAC is even more pessimistic, with a forecast sales of 620,000-680,000 vehicles; Iveco Hongyan judges that this year's situation will be even worse than last year, and the sales volume will decline even more, with no more than 720,000 vehicles sold nationwide. .
In response to this widespread pessimism, Gong Yunan explained that the heavy-duty truck market is a carrier for engineering-related and material-transporting economies that are closely related to the country’s economic development. Affected by the macroeconomic environment, the heavy-duty truck industry and annual economic development in 2015 will be affected. There is a tighter relationship between speeds. As the foreign economic environment remains uncertain and the domestic economic growth rate is expected to slow down, the pessimistic market atmosphere is understandable.
However, Gong Yunan also disclosed to the Tire World Network that the front-line sales staff of the company have never been too optimistic about the market because of their own perspective. Adding 10% to their forecast may only restore the market itself.
Policy Changes Result in "Lack of Quantification" Sales
In addition to the slowdown in economic growth, Gong Yunan believes that another important reason for the decline in sales in the heavy truck market is the “unquantified†sales caused by the conversion period of the National IV emission standard.
According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to December 2014, 3184406 commercial trucks (heavy trucks, light trucks, China Cards, and micro-cards) were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 8.92%. Among them, 743,991 heavy trucks were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 3.89%. Cumulative sales of China Cards totaled 247,839 units, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%. Cumulative sales of light trucks decreased by 12.87% year-on-year to 1,662,634 units. The cumulative sales of micro-cards reached 529,942 units, a slight increase of 0.55% year-on-year.
From the data alone, in the commercial truck market in 2014, the decline in both China Cards and light trucks exceeded 10%, and heavy trucks declined slightly. The micro-cards were basically the same as last year.
According to Gong Yunan’s analysis of quarterly sales of heavy trucks, the National IV standard was implemented on January 1 this year. Changes in industry policies led to a significant drop in the heavy truck market in the fourth quarter of last year, with quarterly sales falling by 30% year-on-year. "This drop is amazing!"
He said that in addition to the overall decline in demand, in the process of the conversion of the national III emission standard to the national IV standard, the speed and strictness of the implementation of policies in different regions are not the same, resulting in the heavy truck market showing an “unquantified†sales trend. For some time in the future, this issue will still affect the sales of the heavy truck market.
According to its calculations, in 2014, the number of heavy trucks in the Chinese market was approximately 564 vehicles. It is conservatively estimated that the demand for renewal this year will be about 560,000 vehicles. Affected by new freight volume and new construction projects, new demand will exceed 200,000 vehicles. 260,000 vehicles.
“We believe that the heavy-duty truck market will be boosted by the macroeconomic growth in 2015, and the market sales volume is expected to rebound after the second quarter, but the annual sales volume will still decline year-on-year. The sales of the heavy trucks throughout the year are pessimistically forecast at 730,000 units, and the forecast is cautious at 807,000 units. Gong Yunan told reporters.
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