In the first half of the year, the economic growth of the oil and chemical industries slowed, and the downward pressure further increased. Until May-June, this situation only took a turn for the better and the positive factors for stabilizing economic growth gradually increased. From the trend of some indicators, some positive changes have also emerged.
According to the data provided by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, in the first half of this year, the total output value of enterprises above designated size in the petroleum and chemical industry reached 5.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, a decrease of more than 21 percentage points from the same period of last year. From May to May, it fell 0.6%, and the decline rate further slowed down. On a sequential basis, the growth rate was 8.4% in May and 9.2% in June. The economic growth in the industry stabilized. From a quarterly perspective, the growth in the first quarter was 16.1% year-on-year and the increase in the second quarter was only 9.5%, the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2009. In the first half of the year, the industrial added value increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 2.8 percentage points.
In terms of sub-industries, the output value of the oil refining industry in the first half of the year was 1.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.6 percent, and the growth rate was 1.1 percentage points lower than that in January-May; the chemical industry output value was 3.42 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.7 percent, and it was 0.7 lower than that in January-May. In terms of percentage, the output value in June increased by 11.9%, which was 0.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and the decline was stable.
It is not difficult to see from the data that the 12.5% ​​growth rate of the industry's gross output value in the first half of this year cannot be compared with the 34.4% growth rate in the same period of last year. In this regard, Li Shousheng, executive vice president of the Petrochemical Federation, believes that the single-digit low growth rate has been a significant feature of the economic operation of the petrochemical industry this year. He said that the lack of market demand and continued decline in economic efficiency are the two major contradictions faced by the industry in the first half of the year. The overall price level has declined rapidly. In particular, the oil and gas industry and the chemical industry experienced the first negative growth in the price index, which has not happened in many years. The trend of prices reflects the lack of market demand. The other is the continued decline in industry efficiency, from January to May, the industry's total profit of 303.144 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.4%, the decline compared to January to April increased by 0.8 percentage points.
According to Li Shousheng's analysis, the reasons for the economic downturn came from four aspects: First, the impact of the decline in the global economic trend is deepening; Second, the slowdown in domestic demand growth, downward pressure; Third, the increase in production costs has exacerbated the difficulties of enterprises; It is the continued decline in product prices that affects market expectations.
Zhao Zhiping, director of the Information and Marketing Department of the Petrochemical Federation, also analyzed that the economic growth rate of the industry in the first half of the year fell sharply, which was formed under the overall economic environment and matched the growth rate of the domestic macro economy. However, people are accustomed to the high growth rate of more than 30% that they have maintained for years and may not be suitable for lower growth. Zhao Zhiping stated that it is unlikely that the industry economy will continue to maintain its double-digit growth rate, because behind this growth rate is the unlimited supply of energy and resources, which is not sustainable. For future sustainable development, we must moderately reduce the speed.
Although the figures are not full of red lines in previous years, there are also new changes and new highlights.
According to statistics, in June, the industry’s total output value was 1.08 trillion yuan, a new monthly high during the year, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. The growth rate for the first time in 11 months after the slowdown has increased; it was up 5% sequentially.
In terms of sub-sectors, the growth of agrochemicals and rubber products has been relatively rapid and has become a rare bright spot in the industry. In the first half of the year, the output value of chemical fertilizers was 381.54 billion yuan, an increase of 21.1%; the output value of pesticides was 117.82 billion yuan, an increase of 21.3%; the output value of rubber products was 399.56 billion yuan, an increase of 18.1%, both significantly higher than the average growth rate of the chemical industry over the same period.
By region, the growth rate in the central and western regions is generally higher than that in the east. Xinjiang has benefited from the support policies of national differentiated industries and the transformation strategy of advantageous resources. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of energy, chemical and other industries reached more than 20%. The output value of Shaanxi's petrochemical industry accounts for 26.8% of the province's total industrial output value, which drives the industrial growth of Shaanxi Province by 6.04 percentage points. The coal chemical industry in Ningxia Ningdong base achieved an added value of 1.15 billion yuan, an increase of 32.6% year-on-year.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, Li Shousheng emphasized that it is necessary to have a full understanding of the seriousness and complexity of the economic situation in the industry. At the same time, we must also see the favorable conditions and hopes for development. We must comprehensively analyze and ensure that the work of steady growth throughout the year is still conditional. It is possible and confident. He predicted that low-speed macroeconomic growth may continue for some time. Therefore, the industry should combine the current measures for stabilizing growth with long-term measures to adjust the structure, accelerate the transformation of economic growth patterns, learn to develop in low growth, and at low prices. Survival and competition in cost reduction are the fundamental way out for industry and companies to get out of market difficulties, enhance their competitiveness, and maintain sustainable development.
Zhao Zhiping also said that in the second half of the year, the petrochemical industry's days will be better than the first half. Since June, the state has significantly increased the fine-tuning of macroeconomic regulation and pre-adjustment, and has issued a series of policies and measures to “stabilize growth and expand domestic demandâ€. In particular, interest rates have entered a new round of downward adjustment cycles in the wake of inflationary pressures. It will have a greater positive impact on late-stage investment and consumer demand, and support the downstream demand of the oil and chemical industries to gradually emerge from the bottom. In addition, the favorable factors that promote the stable recovery of the oil and chemical industry include: It is expected that the international oil price will continue to fluctuate and decline in the third quarter, which will help reduce the price of downstream products and ease the pressure of excessive costs.
Forging die is the basis for realizing forged products. Without good and superior molds, there is no way to produce qualified products. From mold design, to mold material selection, to mold manufacturing, every step is very critical. First of all, mold design should follow good performance, excellent processing performance and certain economic performance, and at the same time, molds with good formability, reasonable life, and easy installation, debugging and maintenance should be designed. For the selection of mold materials, reasonable and economical mold materials should also be selected according to product structure, batch requirements, etc. In the process of mold processing, the mold should be processed reasonably according to the precision requirements of the product, and the heat treatment and stress should be considered. Only by making adequate preparations can a reasonable and excellent mold be manufactured.
SCZY has its own internal mold manufacturing department, from mold design, material procurement, mold manufacturing are all handled internally by us. It can better and more effectively ensure the rationality of the mold and the performance of the mold. Can better communicate and coordinate with the production department to achieve the best results.
Forging Mold Development,Precision Forging Dies,Precision Forging Tools,Precision Forging Molds
Shenzhen SCZY Technology Co.,Ltd , https://www.szsccasting.com