Ladder electricity prices to generate 30 billion meters to transform the market optimistic about the four shares

On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission (hereinafter referred to as the National Development and Reform Commission) promulgated the "Guidance on Implementing Stairway Price for Residents' Living Electricity (Draft for Solicitation of Comments)" and passed media to the public on October 9-21. solicit opinions.

We believe that the implementation of residential ladder tariffs will have a limited effect on grid revenue growth in the short term and will increase long-term utility. 1) China's annual electricity consumption is about 360-400 million kwh, and residential electricity accounts for about 13%. Since the residents' electricity prices are lower than the industrial electricity prices, the proportion of electricity generated from the residents in the grid income is less than 13%. 2) In the ladder electricity price, the higher electricity price is charged for the portion that exceeds the reference electricity quantity, and the electricity price for the reference electricity quantity portion remains stable. 3) The level of electricity consumption is highly correlated with income level. The electricity consumption of residents in China has been growing at an average annual rate of more than 10%, and the proportion of residents' electricity consumption in China's electricity consumption structure will gradually increase. 4) With the increase in the overall level of electricity consumption, the difference between the ladder price will increase in the long term.

In addition, the implementation of residential ladder tariffs will help the grid to accelerate the investment in related equipment, ensure the implementation of desulfurization and price increase, and strengthen the investment capacity of power companies. The increase in revenue of grid companies after the implementation of ladder-based electricity prices is mainly used to make up for the increase in desulfurization costs (the installation of desulphurization plants for thermal power plants, the on-grid tariff increase of 0.015 yuan/kwh), the renovation of electricity metering for residential users, and the increase in the cost of fuel for power generation companies. The implementation of the ladder price will promote the grid to accelerate the transformation of the “one household and one form” city network. The improvement of the cash flow of the power grid will also help ensure the implementation of the desulfurization and price increase.

We believe that the implementation of the residential ladder price policy: 1) Will directly promote the grid to accelerate the implementation of “one household, one meter”, and is beneficial to related meter manufacturers (such as Kelu Electronics, XJ Electric) (Huachuang Securities believes that Domestic users still use traditional mechanical meters and cannot meet the demand for ladder prices. Therefore, some provinces and cities, such as Hubei Province, have begun to replace smart meters for users in batches on a regular basis. This will undoubtedly bring about blowouts for the needs of the smart meter industry. Estimated from the current population, the total market capacity is expected to be as high as 30 billion yuan); 2) After the ladder price, the desulfurization and price increase will be further fully protected, indirectly beneficial to the power generators, but the role is limited; 3) With the improvement of the cash flow of the power companies, Increased investment capacity of enterprises will help promote the introduction of the denitrification tariff policy. If the denitrification policy is implemented, the profitability of related power companies (Kowloon Electric and Longyuan Technology) is expected to exceed expectations, and investors are advised to pay close attention.